My hypotheses are: program activities affect short-term outcome “confidence”, and the effect of program activities on the long-term outcome happiness is mediated by confidence, how can I estimate the relationships between them?

welcome!

thanks!

In such an analysis, at least 4 relationships should be measured:
1) Does the program increase confidence?
2) Does confidence increase happiness?
3) Does the program have direct effect on happiness?
4) Does the program have indirect effect on happiness through confidence?
If you figure out the direction and magnitude of these relationships, you can have a clearer understanding of the “process”.