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If the correlation is positive, can I conclude that one variable predicts another variable?

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Sophia
13 August 2020
If the correlation is positive, can I conclude that one variable predicts another variable?

If the correlation is positive, can I conclude that one variable predicts another variable?

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Peter Cheung
12 August 2020

Yes.

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Sophia
12 August 2020

I see, it is unclear for the predictor-outcome relationship in a correlational analysis.

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Peter Cheung
12 August 2020

No. A positive correlation only shows that the two variables are correlated positively. However, when we say A predicts B, we refer to a causal relationship between A and B, that is, A is the cause of B. Evidence supporting this causal statement should include: 1) Varying together. 2) No alternative explanations for the covariance. 3) A happens before B. Therefore, the evidence of a positive correlation is not enough to claim a causal relationship.

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